The High Line - Symbol and Catalyst for Growth

NY1 ran a segment this morning to announce the completion of digging for the Second Avenue Subway project - which has been planned and envisioned since the 1920s!  When the new line opens for strap-hangers in 2016, Second Avenue will become a draw for more retail, eating/drinking establishments, community services and more.  One only needs to look at the High Line to see how public & private investment can re-envision an entire neighborhood. 

A recent New York Times article, Cities See Another Side to Old Tracks, discussed how The High Line has become both a symbol and a catalyst for an explosion of growth in the meatpacking district and the Chelsea neighborhood. 

In fact, in the five years since construction started on the High Line, 29 new projects have been built or are under way in the neighborhood, according to the New York City Department of City Planning. More than 2,500 new residential units, 1,000 hotel rooms and over 500,000 square feet of office and art gallery space have gone up.

Behind the Numbers: Number of Residential Properties For Sale in Several Neighborhoods, July 2011

It comes as no surprise that the overall number of properties for sale (listings) declined during the period of May thru July 2011.  (Anyone that has been in the city knows the commitment it takes to search for an apartment in the recent heat.)  I do anticipate that number of listings  will jump in September/October as everyone settles into the rhythms of the fall season.  But, different neighborhoods posted different levels of decline in listing volumes.  

See the graphic, local numbers, and insight into the differences after the jump

Recent Real Estate Headlines - Focus on NYC Rental Market

According to QuickFacts on census.gov, over 70% of Manhattan households rent.  It's not a far jump to see that the multi-family market plays a large role in the Manhattan real estate market.  So, there is plenty of coverage of the rental market - as well as the trading of rental buildings in the press.  


Articles followed the fluctuations of the rental market in New York - in the bubble, the crash, and the recovery.  First, rents were up, inventory was down.  Then, concessions were the norm, rents were down.  Now, concessions are disappearing and vacancy rates are plummeting.  The recent news from the NYC rental market focuses on the rising rents, and shrinking inventory.  A few sources also noted the fewer trades of multi-family buildings in the market.  


Some recent headlines include:

• Rents on the Rise Again from the WSJ.com.  Read more at http://on.wsj.com/ihAbmY [June 09, 2011]
• Manhattan Rents Still Headed Up, With No Sign of Stopping from Curbed NY.  Read more at http://t.co/e6wJjS9
• New York Experiences Decline in Transaction Volume; New Capital Comes to Market from Multi-Housing News.  Read More at http://j.mp/n3HX18

Finding the right apartment - finding a needle in a haystack?

The Wall Street Journal reported Skyward Move in Rents....


The bottom line:

• Manhattan rents were up 10.1%, the biggest average increase in rent since the end of 2006.
• Manhattan monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment averaged $2,672 while monthly rent for a two-bedroom averaged $3,757.
• The Manhattan vacancy rate fell to 0.72% - the lowest vacancy rate on record since 2002.
• Just 11% of apartment transactions in New York last month included some type if concession, less than half of the 28% that did in June 2010.

Read the full article :  here

Development site sales, prices rise in northern Manhattan

Crain's New York Business RED ALERT: Development site sales, prices rise uptown

The Bottom Line: Demand for development sites is picking up in northern Manhattan.

*Better sites are now drawing bids ... nearly $79 per buildable square foot in the first half of 2011.

*Smaller multi-family units in Harlem seeing rents in line with peak levels prior to the recession.

Northern Manhattan Rentals - A Market Snapshot for June 2011

This month, The Real Deal featured an article on "Cheaper condos moving in Harlem; Uptown new development inventory is selling; albeit at lower prices."  First, a few facts on the Uptown condo market from the article (Q1 2011 as compared to Q1 2010):

• 55% more condo closings 
• Average sales price is up 5% 
• Average size is down 1%

Now, I started to wonder about the current rental market in Northern Manhattan as well.  I dug into OLR data for rental data.  Read after the jump to see what I found.

Kips Bay & Murray Hill continue to offer good value!

I continued the trend of building charts yesterday (see Better, But Still on the Mend).  Next Up?  A heat map of current overall average price per square foot for studio, alcove studio, 1-bedroom, and 2-bedroom configurations.

Better, But Still on the Mend

An article in today's Wall Street Journal analyzes second quarter data for Manhattan apartment sales.  The data doesn't point to a new bubble emerging.  But, the data isn't a harbinger of a dour market to come either.  Some key market statistics for 2nd Quarter 2011  (from the article):

• Average Price for a Manhattan Apartment - $1.39 million
• Median Prices are 1.2% below 2nd Quarter 2010 prices.  That's a difference of about $16,000 on a purchase of $1.39 million
• Average Prices are 1.5% above 2nd Quarter 2010 prices.  That's a difference of about $20,850 on a purchase of $1.39 million

If you happen to be a buyer or a seller in Manhattan, please remember these borough-wide statistic are but one indicator of the current market.  As an alternate view of the $1.39M price point, I created my own bar chart of current median prices for studio, alcove studio, 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom apartments for several different neighborhoods.   Here on the blog, its tough to read the individual data bars that represent different neighborhoods - so don't.  Focus instead on the dotted horizontal line.  This line represents the current average price for a Manhattan apartment.  Notice all the bars below that line.  But remember, even here we're speaking only of average and median prices

Bottom Line:  A statistic is just that.  Your results will vary based on how you use the information available to you!

If you'd like to see larger version of this graph, or more of my 'under the covers' analysis of neighborhood market conditions, CLICK HERE to email me today!  I'll send you a complimentary copy of the current issue of my newsletter, 'The Real State of Real Estate'

Moving On Up...

In addition to my focus on residential sales in Lower West Manhattan, I also work with the investment team at Metropolitan Residential to market and sell investment buildings.  Currently,  we are marketing a short sale investment opportunity for a new construction condo building (with an elevator!) .  The property is located in on West 126th Street within 2 blocks of the express stop on the A/C/E line.  Here's a picture of the building. 

Now, this got me wondering....how many condos and other new construction projects are currently underway in Manhattan?  Read after the jump to see what I learned...

May 2011 - Neighborhood Pricing Comparison

As part of the many data sources available to the professional real estate community, OLR publishes daily market snapshot statistics.   This includes average price per square foot paid in different neighborhoods, for coops and condos.  The graph shows the average price per square foot for coops and condos in different neighborhoods throughout middle and lower Manhattan.

It is always good to know the average price per square foot in the neighborhoods you are considering for a purchase.  It gives you a quick rule of thumb to compare the value of each property against the 'average market.'  Great deals will often have lower prices or better features than the average property in the neighborhood.  But that's not all....Here's the Bottom Line:

• Flatiron has the biggest difference between condo and coop $/sq. ft prices.
• Coop pricing warrants a second look for active buyers in Chelsea
• Condo sellers in Greenwich & West Village neighborhoods will face few competing properties
• Murray Hill, Kips Bay, and Gramercy Park are centrally located neighborhoods that offer a target rich environment for finding a GREAT DEAL!

Coop Sales Surge

In fact, the current edition of The Real Deal* discusses a recent surge in coop sales, and the effect on the marketplace.

I took a look at the data for Chelsea from March 15 - April 11 vs. April 12 - May 11 to see how this plays out in Chelsea. Some key facts:

• On average, prices for coops ranges from 28% to 44% less than condo prices.
• The volume of coops sold increased by 60% in the time period, while the volume of condos sold remained even.
• Average listing price decreased by 3%, while coop listing prices rose by 1.8%.
• The number of new listings of coops INCREASED by 17%, while the number of new listings of condos DECREASED by 72%.

My conclusions for using this data to your advantage as a buyer or seller are after the break:

Market Up, Market Down - What Is Going On?

In an article on April 1, the New York Times reported "The Manhattan real estate market saw declines in price and sales volume in the first three months of 2011."  The article also stated that many of the city's large brokerage firms released their reports on first quarter activity that day.

Most people will focus on the fact that all reports showed some sign of weakness.  But, there is another statement that is equally valuable to consider.  What statement is that...?

"...firms varied in their conclusions"

Data helps to draw conclusions about the marketplace.   Whatever the new data that comes out, ask your agent, (or ask me if you're looking for an agent):  How will you use this market data to get me the best deal?

A Market Snapshot - March 2011

Although it is April Fool's Day, market data is no joke.  This morning, as I reviewed market data for March, I was pleased to see signs of growing activity and stable values in the West Village. 

To see what the early spring season brought to market, I return to 2-bedroom apartments in the West Village as my focus for this post.  Over the coming week, stop back for updates on other layouts or neighborhoods situated on the lower west side. 

Top Line:  I believe that two bedroom properties in the West Village continue to represent good value - as well as a thriving real estate market

• The average price per square foot for 2 bedroom apartments in the West Village remained stable, posting a decrease of only 4%.  Currently, the average price per square foot for 2-bedrooms in the neighborhood is $942/sq ft (compared to $1080/sq ft for 1-bedrooms) 
• Trade volume picked up nicely, with contracts signed up by 10%, new listings up by 8.7% and properties sold up by a whopping 44%.
• 6% of listings for 2-bedroom units dropped their price during the period and another 6% of listings were taken off the market.   

How do I read between these lines? 

• Inventory remains low in this popular neighborhood - which encourages stable market values. 
• Owners of properties that have been sitting on the market are growing more motivated to strike a deal. 
• Buyers and sellers have more closely matched expectations for pricing and deals.
• Now is a good time to consider 2-bedroom layouts to gain a little more space...and an extra bedroom!

If this market snapshot is enticing, call or email me (rebekah@tmrp.com) to guide you to the best deals and the most interesting opportunities! 

Monthly Market Focus: 1-2 bedroom condos in Chelsea

Real estate market conditions change season to season and even month to month.  Each month I'll provide you with some current market data, focused on a specific neighborhood and property type.  

Prices:

If you are considering buying or selling a 1-2 bedroom condo in Chelsea, you should know that 1-2 bedroom condos are listed at:

*$1295/Average Price Per Sq. Ft

*$1,544,606/Average Listing Price

Current Inventory:

*There are 113 properties in chelsea in current inventory.  (This includes 1-bed, conv. 2, junior 2, 1+home office, 1+dining room, 1+nursery, and 2-bed layouts)

*About 7 new properties come available each week

*New listings increased by 44% between February and March

Market Activity:

For 1-2 bedroom condos in Chelsea,

*Market activity remained stable (contracts, closings) from February to March 2011

*15 Contracts Signed

*11 Properties Sold

If you'd like to know more about what this market data means for you, please contact me at rebekah@tmrp.com.   

A Market Snapshot - February 2011

End of month data suggests that 2 bedroom apartments in the West Village neighborhood represent great value in the current market!  Here are few data points in support:

• The average listing price for 2 bedroom apartments in the West Village decreased 7.35% between January and February 2011. 
• At the end of February, there were 55 2-bedroom apartments available for purchase in the West Village priced from $699K to $6.75M. 
• The median price is $1.55M.   

In addition, February market data shows 2 bedroom apartments in West Village are priced, on average:

• $72 LESS per square foot than 1 bedroom apartments in the same neighborhood.
• $187 LESS per square foot than 2 bedroom apartments in Greenwich Village (just to the East).
• $133 LESS per square foot than 2 bedroom apartments listed across downtown Manhattan.

If this market snapshot is enticing, call or email me (rebekah@tmrp.com) to guide you to the best deals and the most interesting opportunities!